Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.353324 0.411656 0.475003 0.548701 0.631871 0.722607 0.828863
2025-05-04 0.274561 0.350839 0.440059 0.551361 0.685659 0.841611 1.035474
2025-05-11 0.215417 0.301048 0.408573 0.551724 0.735302 0.960661 1.255788
2025-05-18 0.159162 0.244442 0.359710 0.523626 0.746905 1.036181 1.434287
2025-05-25 0.114904 0.194977 0.311820 0.489467 0.746367 1.097100 1.603198
2025-06-01 0.087773 0.164459 0.285051 0.480469 0.779285 1.207261 1.851708
2025-06-08 0.066303 0.137760 0.259078 0.468620 0.807024 1.314546 2.110236
2025-06-15 0.053803 0.123329 0.250123 0.482244 0.875876 1.490615 2.488708
2025-06-22 0.039080 0.100440 0.221871 0.459091 0.883445 1.575664 2.742065
2025-06-29 0.029090 0.083912 0.201522 0.446115 0.906293 1.687932 3.050578
2025-07-06 0.021318 0.069467 0.181744 0.430458 0.922315 1.791291 3.356532
2025-07-13 0.017171 0.062421 0.175948 0.441430 0.988971 1.988459 3.837763
2025-07-20 0.012938 0.053489 0.164163 0.439222 1.033463 2.157520 4.298377
2025-07-27 0.010066 0.047219 0.157130 0.446325 1.098340 2.372166 4.862120
2025-08-03 0.007726 0.041385 0.149530 0.450794 1.159162 2.587205 5.449277
2025-08-10 0.005302 0.033446 0.133261 0.430511 1.163948 2.696004 5.853772
2025-08-17 0.003466 0.026284 0.116379 0.404299 1.151101 2.768721 6.198581
2025-08-24 0.002476 0.022216 0.107906 0.398896 1.186188 2.943862 6.758745
2025-08-31 0.001723 0.018551 0.099212 0.390639 1.213202 3.105474 7.307786
2025-09-07 0.001350 0.016909 0.097653 0.403932 1.297165 3.399636 8.150731
2025-09-14 0.000864 0.013522 0.087035 0.385325 1.294923 3.503061 8.610441
2025-09-21 0.000572 0.011164 0.079612 0.375218 1.313919 3.656799 9.189343
2025-09-28 0.000364 0.009080 0.072139 0.362584 1.323642 3.790048 9.735768